What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's reported free cash flow gives $140.65 per share. The share price was $81.12 on September 25, 2026, 42% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $81.86 | +1% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $140.65 | +73% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $255.14 | +215% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $182.53 | $195.24 | $210.78 | $230.20 | $255.18 |
| 8.0% | $151.33 | $159.57 | $169.32 | $181.01 | $195.30 |
| 9.0% | $128.50 | $134.14 | $140.65 | $148.24 | $157.20 |
| 10.0% | $111.10 | $115.11 | $119.65 | $124.84 | $130.83 |
| 11.0% | $97.39 | $100.33 | $103.61 | $107.31 | $111.50 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions