What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's reported free cash flow gives $139.97 per share. The share price was $69.30 on November 10, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $81.18 | +17% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $139.97 | +102% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $254.46 | +267% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $181.85 | $194.56 | $210.10 | $229.53 | $254.50 |
| 8.0% | $150.65 | $158.90 | $168.64 | $180.33 | $194.63 |
| 9.0% | $127.83 | $133.47 | $139.97 | $147.56 | $156.53 |
| 10.0% | $110.42 | $114.43 | $118.97 | $124.17 | $130.16 |
| 11.0% | $96.71 | $99.65 | $102.94 | $106.63 | $110.82 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions