What is ProFrac Holding Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on ProFrac Holding Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives -$1.26 per share. The share price was $4.61 on September 25, 2026, 467% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | -$2.77 | -160% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | -$1.26 | -127% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1.56 | -66% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$0.11 | $0.24 | $0.68 | $1.22 | $1.92 |
| 8.0% | -$0.97 | -$0.74 | -$0.47 | -$0.14 | $0.26 |
| 9.0% | -$1.60 | -$1.44 | -$1.26 | -$1.04 | -$0.79 |
| 10.0% | -$2.07 | -$1.96 | -$1.83 | -$1.68 | -$1.52 |
| 11.0% | -$2.44 | -$2.36 | -$2.27 | -$2.16 | -$2.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at ProFrac Holding Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (28.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions