What is Alcoa Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alcoa Corp's reported free cash flow gives $40.04 per share. The share price was $42.85 on September 25, 2026, 7% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $23.77 | -45% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $40.04 | -7% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $72.47 | +69% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $52.05 | $55.72 | $60.20 | $65.81 | $73.01 |
| 8.0% | $43.09 | $45.46 | $48.28 | $51.65 | $55.77 |
| 9.0% | $36.53 | $38.16 | $40.04 | $42.23 | $44.81 |
| 10.0% | $31.54 | $32.70 | $34.01 | $35.51 | $37.24 |
| 11.0% | $27.62 | $28.47 | $29.41 | $30.48 | $31.69 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alcoa Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions