What is Zumiez Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Zumiez Inc's reported free cash flow gives $34.67 per share. The share price was $13.31 on September 25, 2026, 62% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.0% | 10.0% | $22.81 | +71% |
| Base | -1.0% | 9.0% | $34.67 | +160% |
| Bull | 4.0% | 8.0% | $56.79 | +327% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $42.80 | $45.24 | $48.21 | $51.92 | $56.69 |
| 8.0% | $36.77 | $38.35 | $40.21 | $42.45 | $45.18 |
| 9.0% | $32.34 | $33.42 | $34.67 | $36.12 | $37.83 |
| 10.0% | $28.95 | $29.72 | $30.59 | $31.58 | $32.73 |
| 11.0% | $26.28 | $26.84 | $27.47 | $28.17 | $28.97 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Zumiez Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 6 fiscal years (-1.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions