What is Yum China Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $49.39 per share. The share price was $49.73 on November 10, 2026, 1% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $31.36 | -37% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $49.39 | -1% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $85.35 | +72% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $62.80 | $66.90 | $71.91 | $78.18 | $86.24 |
| 8.0% | $52.79 | $55.45 | $58.59 | $62.36 | $66.98 |
| 9.0% | $45.47 | $47.29 | $49.39 | $51.84 | $54.74 |
| 10.0% | $39.91 | $41.20 | $42.67 | $44.34 | $46.28 |
| 11.0% | $35.54 | $36.48 | $37.54 | $38.74 | $40.09 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions