What is Xponential Fitness, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $9.19 per share. The share price was $3.92 on September 25, 2026, 57% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | -$0.02 | -101% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $9.19 | +134% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $26.35 | +572% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $16.17 | $18.34 | $21.00 | $24.33 | $28.60 |
| 8.0% | $10.93 | $12.34 | $14.01 | $16.01 | $18.45 |
| 9.0% | $7.11 | $8.08 | $9.19 | $10.49 | $12.02 |
| 10.0% | $4.22 | $4.91 | $5.69 | $6.57 | $7.60 |
| 11.0% | $1.96 | $2.46 | $3.03 | $3.66 | $4.37 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (31.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions