What is XPO, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on XPO, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $27.29 per share. The share price was $188.21 on November 10, 2026, 590% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $7.83 | -96% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $27.29 | -86% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $66.08 | -65% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $41.57 | $45.92 | $51.23 | $57.87 | $66.41 |
| 8.0% | $30.92 | $33.74 | $37.07 | $41.07 | $45.96 |
| 9.0% | $23.14 | $25.06 | $27.29 | $29.88 | $32.95 |
| 10.0% | $17.20 | $18.57 | $20.13 | $21.90 | $23.95 |
| 11.0% | $12.53 | $13.54 | $14.66 | $15.92 | $17.36 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at XPO, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions