What is XPO, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on XPO, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $26.89 per share. The share price was $173.17 on September 25, 2026, 544% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $7.44 | -96% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $26.89 | -84% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $65.68 | -62% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $41.17 | $45.52 | $50.83 | $57.48 | $66.02 |
| 8.0% | $30.53 | $33.35 | $36.68 | $40.68 | $45.56 |
| 9.0% | $22.74 | $24.67 | $26.89 | $29.49 | $32.56 |
| 10.0% | $16.81 | $18.18 | $19.73 | $21.51 | $23.56 |
| 11.0% | $12.14 | $13.14 | $14.27 | $15.53 | $16.96 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at XPO, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions