What is XPEL, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on XPEL, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $75.22 per share. The share price was $38.01 on November 9, 2026, 49% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $45.75 | +20% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $75.22 | +98% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $130.10 | +242% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $97.53 | $104.49 | $112.99 | $123.62 | $137.29 |
| 8.0% | $80.77 | $85.28 | $90.61 | $97.01 | $104.83 |
| 9.0% | $68.58 | $71.66 | $75.22 | $79.37 | $84.28 |
| 10.0% | $59.33 | $61.52 | $64.01 | $66.85 | $70.13 |
| 11.0% | $52.09 | $53.70 | $55.50 | $57.52 | $59.81 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at XPEL, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (24.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions