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Stocks WYNN DCF valuation

DCF valuation

What is Wynn Resorts Ltd worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Wynn Resorts Ltd's reported free cash flow gives $131.61 per share. The share price was $81.12 on September 25, 2026, 38% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$692.2M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$323.8M
Cash
$1.57B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$10.72B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
104,243,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
27.8%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear10.0%6.0%2.0%10.0%$45.52-44%
Base15.0%9.0%2.5%9.0%$131.61+62%
Bull20.0%11.5%3.0%8.0%$291.91+260%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$196.79$217.11$241.95$273.00$312.92
8.0%$147.82$161.00$176.58$195.27$218.12
9.0%$112.20$121.21$131.61$143.74$158.07
10.0%$85.18$91.59$98.86$107.16$116.73
11.0%$64.05$68.75$74.00$79.90$86.60

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Wynn Resorts Ltd's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (27.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Wynn Resorts Ltd company page