What is Walmart Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Walmart Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $30.74 per share. The share price was $107.98 on September 25, 2026, 251% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | $17.63 | -84% |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | $30.74 | -72% |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $55.23 | -49% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $40.13 | $42.99 | $46.48 | $50.84 | $56.45 |
| 8.0% | $33.13 | $34.98 | $37.17 | $39.80 | $43.01 |
| 9.0% | $28.01 | $29.28 | $30.74 | $32.45 | $34.46 |
| 10.0% | $24.11 | $25.02 | $26.04 | $27.20 | $28.55 |
| 11.0% | $21.04 | $21.71 | $22.44 | $23.27 | $24.21 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Walmart Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions