What is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $150.85 per share. The share price was $133.13 on September 25, 2026, 12% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $85.26 | -36% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $150.85 | +13% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $273.22 | +105% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $198.93 | $213.72 | $231.79 | $254.39 | $283.44 |
| 8.0% | $162.96 | $172.56 | $183.89 | $197.49 | $214.12 |
| 9.0% | $136.73 | $143.28 | $150.85 | $159.68 | $170.11 |
| 10.0% | $116.77 | $121.43 | $126.72 | $132.76 | $139.73 |
| 11.0% | $101.11 | $104.52 | $108.34 | $112.64 | $117.52 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions