What is Waste Management Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Waste Management Inc's reported free cash flow gives $172.70 per share. The share price was $236.83 on November 10, 2026, 37% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $106.05 | -55% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $172.70 | -27% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $305.54 | +29% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $223.12 | $238.67 | $257.68 | $281.44 | $311.98 |
| 8.0% | $185.37 | $195.45 | $207.37 | $221.68 | $239.16 |
| 9.0% | $157.84 | $164.74 | $172.70 | $181.98 | $192.95 |
| 10.0% | $136.92 | $141.83 | $147.38 | $153.73 | $161.06 |
| 11.0% | $120.51 | $124.10 | $128.12 | $132.64 | $137.77 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Waste Management Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions