What is Willis Lease Finance Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Willis Lease Finance Corp's reported free cash flow gives $857.66 per share. The share price was $54.33 on September 25, 2026, 94% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $391.98 | +621% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $857.66 | +1,479% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,724.77 | +3,075% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,210.23 | $1,320.17 | $1,454.53 | $1,622.49 | $1,838.43 |
| 8.0% | $945.38 | $1,016.67 | $1,100.92 | $1,202.03 | $1,325.60 |
| 9.0% | $752.67 | $801.42 | $857.66 | $923.28 | $1,000.83 |
| 10.0% | $606.55 | $641.22 | $680.50 | $725.40 | $777.21 |
| 11.0% | $492.22 | $517.63 | $546.03 | $577.99 | $614.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Willis Lease Finance Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (20.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions