What is Waste Connections, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Waste Connections, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $92.15 per share. The share price was $155.56 on September 25, 2026, 69% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $43.50 | -72% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $92.15 | -41% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $189.09 | +22% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $129.16 | $140.60 | $154.58 | $172.06 | $194.54 |
| 8.0% | $101.43 | $108.85 | $117.62 | $128.14 | $141.00 |
| 9.0% | $81.22 | $86.29 | $92.15 | $98.98 | $107.05 |
| 10.0% | $65.87 | $69.47 | $73.56 | $78.24 | $83.63 |
| 11.0% | $53.83 | $56.47 | $59.43 | $62.76 | $66.53 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Waste Connections, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions