What is Waste Connections, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Waste Connections, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $91.57 per share. The share price was $191.14 on November 10, 2026, 109% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $42.92 | -78% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $91.57 | -52% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $188.52 | -1% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $128.58 | $140.02 | $154.01 | $171.49 | $193.96 |
| 8.0% | $100.85 | $108.27 | $117.04 | $127.57 | $140.43 |
| 9.0% | $80.64 | $85.72 | $91.57 | $98.40 | $106.47 |
| 10.0% | $65.29 | $68.90 | $72.99 | $77.66 | $83.05 |
| 11.0% | $53.25 | $55.90 | $58.85 | $62.18 | $65.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Waste Connections, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions