What is Wayfair Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Wayfair Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $28.73 per share. The share price was $111.00 on November 10, 2026, 286% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -7.5% | 10.0% | $13.02 | -88% |
| Base | -2.5% | 9.0% | $28.73 | -74% |
| Bull | 2.5% | 8.0% | $59.28 | -47% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $39.38 | $42.53 | $46.39 | $51.22 | $57.43 |
| 8.0% | $31.50 | $33.55 | $35.97 | $38.87 | $42.42 |
| 9.0% | $25.71 | $27.11 | $28.73 | $30.61 | $32.84 |
| 10.0% | $21.27 | $22.27 | $23.40 | $24.69 | $26.17 |
| 11.0% | $17.76 | $18.49 | $19.30 | $20.22 | $21.26 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Wayfair Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-2.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions