What is Wayfair Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Wayfair Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $28.65 per share. The share price was $98.15 on September 25, 2026, 243% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -7.5% | 10.0% | $12.94 | -87% |
| Base | -2.5% | 9.0% | $28.65 | -71% |
| Bull | 2.5% | 8.0% | $59.20 | -40% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $39.30 | $42.46 | $46.32 | $51.14 | $57.35 |
| 8.0% | $31.42 | $33.47 | $35.89 | $38.80 | $42.35 |
| 9.0% | $25.63 | $27.03 | $28.65 | $30.53 | $32.76 |
| 10.0% | $21.19 | $22.19 | $23.32 | $24.61 | $26.10 |
| 11.0% | $17.68 | $18.41 | $19.23 | $20.14 | $21.18 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Wayfair Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-2.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions