What is VERRA MOBILITY Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on VERRA MOBILITY Corp's reported free cash flow gives $21.90 per share. The share price was $3.24 on September 25, 2026, 85% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $10.91 | +237% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $21.90 | +576% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $42.36 | +1,207% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $30.22 | $32.81 | $35.98 | $39.94 | $45.04 |
| 8.0% | $23.97 | $25.65 | $27.64 | $30.02 | $32.94 |
| 9.0% | $19.42 | $20.57 | $21.90 | $23.44 | $25.27 |
| 10.0% | $15.97 | $16.79 | $17.72 | $18.78 | $20.00 |
| 11.0% | $13.27 | $13.87 | $14.54 | $15.30 | $16.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at VERRA MOBILITY Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (20.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions