What is Vulcan Materials CO worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Vulcan Materials CO's reported free cash flow gives $184.13 per share. The share price was $245.00 on September 25, 2026, 33% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $102.29 | -58% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $184.13 | -25% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $347.27 | +42% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $246.05 | $265.14 | $288.49 | $317.66 | $355.18 |
| 8.0% | $199.69 | $212.08 | $226.71 | $244.28 | $265.75 |
| 9.0% | $165.89 | $174.36 | $184.13 | $195.53 | $209.00 |
| 10.0% | $140.20 | $146.22 | $153.05 | $160.85 | $169.85 |
| 11.0% | $120.05 | $124.46 | $129.39 | $134.94 | $141.24 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Vulcan Materials CO's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions