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What is Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $137.03 per share. The share price was $108.75 on September 25, 2026, 21% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$381.3M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$347.7M
Cash
$70.1M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$968M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
66,376,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
11.0%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear6.0%4.0%2.0%10.0%$78.43-28%
Base11.0%7.0%2.5%9.0%$137.03+26%
Bull16.0%9.5%3.0%8.0%$246.30+126%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$180.47$193.90$210.31$230.83$257.20
8.0%$147.93$156.63$166.93$179.27$194.37
9.0%$124.21$130.16$137.03$145.04$154.52
10.0%$106.18$110.42$115.22$120.70$127.03
11.0%$92.05$95.16$98.63$102.53$106.95

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. company page