What is Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $137.03 per share. The share price was $108.75 on September 25, 2026, 21% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $78.43 | -28% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $137.03 | +26% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $246.30 | +126% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $180.47 | $193.90 | $210.31 | $230.83 | $257.20 |
| 8.0% | $147.93 | $156.63 | $166.93 | $179.27 | $194.37 |
| 9.0% | $124.21 | $130.16 | $137.03 | $145.04 | $154.52 |
| 10.0% | $106.18 | $110.42 | $115.22 | $120.70 | $127.03 |
| 11.0% | $92.05 | $95.16 | $98.63 | $102.53 | $106.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions