What is Vericel Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Vericel Corp's reported free cash flow gives $18.08 per share. The share price was $39.71 on September 25, 2026, 120% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $11.93 | -70% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $18.08 | -54% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $29.54 | -26% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $22.74 | $24.19 | $25.97 | $28.19 | $31.04 |
| 8.0% | $19.24 | $20.18 | $21.30 | $22.63 | $24.26 |
| 9.0% | $16.70 | $17.34 | $18.08 | $18.95 | $19.97 |
| 10.0% | $14.76 | $15.22 | $15.74 | $16.34 | $17.02 |
| 11.0% | $13.25 | $13.59 | $13.97 | $14.39 | $14.87 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Vericel Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (17.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions