What is INNOVATE Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on INNOVATE Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives $297.68 per share. The share price was $7.77 on September 25, 2026, 97% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $185.34 | +2,285% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $297.68 | +3,731% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $521.55 | +6,612% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $383.14 | $409.56 | $441.86 | $482.22 | $534.13 |
| 8.0% | $319.11 | $336.25 | $356.50 | $380.80 | $410.50 |
| 9.0% | $272.44 | $284.16 | $297.68 | $313.45 | $332.09 |
| 10.0% | $236.99 | $245.32 | $254.76 | $265.55 | $278.01 |
| 11.0% | $209.19 | $215.30 | $222.13 | $229.81 | $238.51 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at INNOVATE Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions