What is US Foods Holding Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on US Foods Holding Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives $89.03 per share. The share price was $93.33 on September 25, 2026, 5% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $46.66 | -50% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $89.03 | -5% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $173.48 | +86% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $121.27 | $131.24 | $143.42 | $158.64 | $178.22 |
| 8.0% | $97.11 | $103.58 | $111.22 | $120.38 | $131.59 |
| 9.0% | $79.51 | $83.93 | $89.03 | $94.98 | $102.01 |
| 10.0% | $66.14 | $69.28 | $72.84 | $76.91 | $81.61 |
| 11.0% | $55.65 | $57.96 | $60.53 | $63.43 | $66.71 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at US Foods Holding Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions