What is Upwork, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Upwork, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $58.57 per share. The share price was $9.69 on November 10, 2026, 83% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $36.23 | +274% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $58.57 | +505% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $100.19 | +934% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $75.49 | $80.77 | $87.22 | $95.28 | $105.64 |
| 8.0% | $62.78 | $66.20 | $70.25 | $75.10 | $81.03 |
| 9.0% | $53.54 | $55.87 | $58.57 | $61.72 | $65.44 |
| 10.0% | $46.52 | $48.19 | $50.07 | $52.23 | $54.71 |
| 11.0% | $41.04 | $42.26 | $43.62 | $45.15 | $46.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Upwork, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions