What is Upwork, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Upwork, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $57.77 per share. The share price was $8.15 on September 25, 2026, 86% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $35.42 | +335% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $57.77 | +609% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $99.39 | +1,119% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $74.69 | $79.97 | $86.42 | $94.48 | $104.84 |
| 8.0% | $61.98 | $65.40 | $69.45 | $74.30 | $80.23 |
| 9.0% | $52.73 | $55.07 | $57.77 | $60.92 | $64.64 |
| 10.0% | $45.72 | $47.39 | $49.27 | $51.43 | $53.91 |
| 11.0% | $40.24 | $41.45 | $42.82 | $44.35 | $46.09 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Upwork, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions