What is United Parcel Service Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on United Parcel Service Inc's reported free cash flow gives $58.19 per share. The share price was $93.96 on September 25, 2026, 61% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.0% | 10.0% | $27.48 | -71% |
| Base | 1.0% | 9.0% | $58.19 | -38% |
| Bull | 6.0% | 8.0% | $115.53 | +23% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $79.58 | $86.02 | $93.88 | $103.71 | $116.35 |
| 8.0% | $63.69 | $67.87 | $72.80 | $78.71 | $85.94 |
| 9.0% | $52.04 | $54.90 | $58.19 | $62.03 | $66.57 |
| 10.0% | $43.14 | $45.17 | $47.47 | $50.10 | $53.13 |
| 11.0% | $36.11 | $37.60 | $39.26 | $41.13 | $43.25 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at United Parcel Service Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (0.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions