What is United Parcel Service Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on United Parcel Service Inc's reported free cash flow gives $58.88 per share. The share price was $111.05 on November 10, 2026, 89% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.0% | 10.0% | $28.17 | -75% |
| Base | 1.0% | 9.0% | $58.88 | -47% |
| Bull | 6.0% | 8.0% | $116.23 | +5% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $80.28 | $86.71 | $94.58 | $104.40 | $117.04 |
| 8.0% | $64.39 | $68.56 | $73.49 | $79.41 | $86.64 |
| 9.0% | $52.74 | $55.59 | $58.88 | $62.72 | $67.26 |
| 10.0% | $43.83 | $45.86 | $48.16 | $50.79 | $53.82 |
| 11.0% | $36.81 | $38.30 | $39.96 | $41.83 | $43.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at United Parcel Service Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (0.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions