What is Upbound Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Upbound Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $93.32 per share. The share price was $24.66 on November 10, 2026, 74% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $51.77 | +110% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $93.32 | +278% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $170.78 | +593% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $124.11 | $133.63 | $145.27 | $159.81 | $178.51 |
| 8.0% | $101.04 | $107.22 | $114.51 | $123.27 | $133.97 |
| 9.0% | $84.23 | $88.45 | $93.32 | $99.00 | $105.71 |
| 10.0% | $71.45 | $74.45 | $77.85 | $81.74 | $86.23 |
| 11.0% | $61.43 | $63.63 | $66.09 | $68.86 | $72.00 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Upbound Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions