What is Union Pacific Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Union Pacific Corp's reported free cash flow gives $115.60 per share. The share price was $273.79 on September 25, 2026, 137% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $53.15 | -81% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $115.60 | -58% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $237.24 | -13% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $160.10 | $173.61 | $190.11 | $210.75 | $237.28 |
| 8.0% | $126.95 | $135.71 | $146.07 | $158.49 | $173.67 |
| 9.0% | $102.71 | $108.69 | $115.60 | $123.67 | $133.20 |
| 10.0% | $84.21 | $88.47 | $93.30 | $98.81 | $105.18 |
| 11.0% | $69.65 | $72.77 | $76.26 | $80.19 | $84.64 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Union Pacific Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions