What is Unitedhealth Group Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Unitedhealth Group Inc's reported free cash flow gives $427.19 per share. The share price was $376.59 on September 25, 2026, 12% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $247.86 | -34% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $427.19 | +13% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $784.57 | +108% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $563.62 | $605.80 | $657.35 | $721.79 | $804.65 |
| 8.0% | $461.40 | $488.76 | $521.08 | $559.88 | $607.29 |
| 9.0% | $386.90 | $405.61 | $427.19 | $452.36 | $482.12 |
| 10.0% | $330.31 | $343.61 | $358.68 | $375.91 | $395.78 |
| 11.0% | $285.93 | $295.68 | $306.58 | $318.84 | $332.74 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Unitedhealth Group Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions