What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $787.78 per share. The share price was $545.20 on September 25, 2026, 31% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $480.03 | -12% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $787.78 | +44% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,360.80 | +150% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,020.77 | $1,093.42 | $1,182.21 | $1,293.21 | $1,435.91 |
| 8.0% | $845.74 | $892.86 | $948.53 | $1,015.35 | $1,097.01 |
| 9.0% | $718.40 | $750.61 | $787.78 | $831.14 | $882.38 |
| 10.0% | $621.83 | $644.74 | $670.70 | $700.37 | $734.61 |
| 11.0% | $546.28 | $563.07 | $581.84 | $602.95 | $626.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions