What is Universal Health Services Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Universal Health Services Inc's reported free cash flow gives $222.00 per share. The share price was $178.86 on September 25, 2026, 19% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $110.43 | -38% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $222.00 | +24% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $444.44 | +148% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $305.43 | $331.03 | $362.33 | $401.45 | $451.74 |
| 8.0% | $243.07 | $259.67 | $279.30 | $302.84 | $331.63 |
| 9.0% | $197.55 | $208.90 | $222.00 | $237.28 | $255.35 |
| 10.0% | $162.91 | $170.99 | $180.14 | $190.59 | $202.66 |
| 11.0% | $135.71 | $141.63 | $148.25 | $155.69 | $164.12 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Universal Health Services Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions