What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $207.56 per share. The share price was $113.99 on September 25, 2026, 45% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $106.65 | -6% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $207.56 | +82% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $395.47 | +247% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $283.96 | $307.79 | $336.90 | $373.30 | $420.10 |
| 8.0% | $226.57 | $242.02 | $260.28 | $282.19 | $308.96 |
| 9.0% | $184.81 | $195.37 | $207.56 | $221.78 | $238.58 |
| 10.0% | $153.14 | $160.66 | $169.17 | $178.90 | $190.13 |
| 11.0% | $128.37 | $133.87 | $140.03 | $146.95 | $154.80 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (30.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions