What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $197.05 per share. The share price was $119.39 on November 10, 2026, 39% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $96.14 | -19% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $197.05 | +65% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $384.96 | +222% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $273.46 | $297.28 | $326.40 | $362.79 | $409.59 |
| 8.0% | $216.06 | $231.51 | $249.77 | $271.68 | $298.46 |
| 9.0% | $174.30 | $184.86 | $197.05 | $211.27 | $228.08 |
| 10.0% | $142.64 | $150.15 | $158.66 | $168.39 | $179.62 |
| 11.0% | $117.86 | $123.37 | $129.52 | $136.45 | $144.29 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (30.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions