What is Tigo Energy, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Tigo Energy, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $3.53 per share. The share price was $0.86 on September 25, 2026, 76% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $2.27 | +164% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $3.53 | +311% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $6.04 | +602% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $4.47 | $4.76 | $5.11 | $5.56 | $6.12 |
| 8.0% | $3.77 | $3.96 | $4.18 | $4.44 | $4.77 |
| 9.0% | $3.26 | $3.38 | $3.53 | $3.70 | $3.91 |
| 10.0% | $2.87 | $2.96 | $3.06 | $3.18 | $3.31 |
| 11.0% | $2.56 | $2.63 | $2.70 | $2.78 | $2.88 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Tigo Energy, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (8.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions