What is TWFG, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on TWFG, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $120.96 per share. The share price was $24.15 on September 25, 2026, 80% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $75.34 | +212% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $120.96 | +401% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $205.93 | +753% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $155.51 | $166.28 | $179.45 | $195.91 | $217.06 |
| 8.0% | $129.56 | $136.54 | $144.80 | $154.71 | $166.82 |
| 9.0% | $110.68 | $115.45 | $120.96 | $127.39 | $134.99 |
| 10.0% | $96.36 | $99.76 | $103.61 | $108.01 | $113.08 |
| 11.0% | $85.16 | $87.65 | $90.43 | $93.56 | $97.11 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at TWFG, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (17.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions