What is Trane Technologies plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Trane Technologies plc's reported free cash flow gives $317.02 per share. The share price was $454.44 on September 25, 2026, 43% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $189.97 | -58% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $317.02 | -30% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $570.21 | +25% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $413.67 | $443.56 | $480.08 | $525.74 | $584.43 |
| 8.0% | $341.26 | $360.64 | $383.54 | $411.02 | $444.61 |
| 9.0% | $288.48 | $301.73 | $317.02 | $334.85 | $355.93 |
| 10.0% | $248.38 | $257.80 | $268.48 | $280.69 | $294.77 |
| 11.0% | $216.95 | $223.85 | $231.57 | $240.26 | $250.10 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Trane Technologies plc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions