What is Tesla, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Tesla, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $60.37 per share. The share price was $372.11 on September 25, 2026, 516% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $37.52 | -90% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $60.37 | -84% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $102.94 | -72% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $77.68 | $83.08 | $89.67 | $97.92 | $108.51 |
| 8.0% | $64.68 | $68.18 | $72.32 | $77.28 | $83.34 |
| 9.0% | $55.22 | $57.61 | $60.37 | $63.60 | $67.40 |
| 10.0% | $48.05 | $49.75 | $51.68 | $53.88 | $56.43 |
| 11.0% | $42.44 | $43.69 | $45.08 | $46.65 | $48.42 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Tesla, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (24.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions