What is Tractor Supply Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Tractor Supply Co's reported free cash flow gives $26.78 per share. The share price was $37.29 on November 10, 2026, 39% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $14.96 | -60% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $26.78 | -28% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $48.83 | +31% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $35.39 | $38.03 | $41.26 | $45.30 | $50.49 |
| 8.0% | $28.96 | $30.67 | $32.69 | $35.12 | $38.10 |
| 9.0% | $24.26 | $25.43 | $26.78 | $28.36 | $30.22 |
| 10.0% | $20.68 | $21.51 | $22.46 | $23.54 | $24.78 |
| 11.0% | $17.87 | $18.48 | $19.17 | $19.93 | $20.80 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Tractor Supply Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions