What is Trupanion, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Trupanion, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $58.14 per share. The share price was $23.16 on September 25, 2026, 60% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $35.71 | +54% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $58.14 | +151% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $99.91 | +331% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $75.12 | $80.42 | $86.89 | $94.98 | $105.38 |
| 8.0% | $62.36 | $65.80 | $69.86 | $74.73 | $80.68 |
| 9.0% | $53.08 | $55.43 | $58.14 | $61.30 | $65.03 |
| 10.0% | $46.04 | $47.71 | $49.60 | $51.77 | $54.26 |
| 11.0% | $40.54 | $41.76 | $43.13 | $44.67 | $46.41 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Trupanion, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (23.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions