What is Trinity Industries Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Trinity Industries Inc's reported free cash flow gives $69.16 per share. The share price was $30.36 on November 10, 2026, 56% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $43.52 | +43% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $69.16 | +128% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $119.10 | +292% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $87.43 | $92.97 | $99.75 | $108.22 | $119.12 |
| 8.0% | $73.82 | $77.41 | $81.67 | $86.77 | $93.00 |
| 9.0% | $63.86 | $66.32 | $69.16 | $72.47 | $76.38 |
| 10.0% | $56.27 | $58.02 | $60.00 | $62.26 | $64.88 |
| 11.0% | $50.29 | $51.57 | $53.00 | $54.62 | $56.44 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Trinity Industries Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions