What is Trulieve Cannabis Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Trulieve Cannabis Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives $40.16 per share. The share price was $12.21 on September 25, 2026, 70% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $24.67 | +102% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $40.16 | +229% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $69.01 | +465% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $51.89 | $55.55 | $60.02 | $65.60 | $72.79 |
| 8.0% | $43.08 | $45.45 | $48.25 | $51.62 | $55.73 |
| 9.0% | $36.67 | $38.29 | $40.16 | $42.34 | $44.92 |
| 10.0% | $31.80 | $32.96 | $34.26 | $35.76 | $37.48 |
| 11.0% | $28.00 | $28.85 | $29.79 | $30.85 | $32.06 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Trulieve Cannabis Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (22.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions