What is Trex Co Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Trex Co Inc's reported free cash flow gives $24.62 per share. The share price was $44.79 on September 25, 2026, 82% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $15.19 | -66% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $24.62 | -45% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $42.21 | -6% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $31.40 | $33.48 | $36.01 | $39.17 | $43.24 |
| 8.0% | $26.34 | $27.68 | $29.27 | $31.18 | $33.50 |
| 9.0% | $22.64 | $23.56 | $24.62 | $25.85 | $27.31 |
| 10.0% | $19.82 | $20.47 | $21.21 | $22.06 | $23.03 |
| 11.0% | $17.60 | $18.08 | $18.61 | $19.22 | $19.90 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Trex Co Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions