What is Turning Point Brands, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $34.61 per share. The share price was $62.94 on November 10, 2026, 82% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $20.64 | -67% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $34.61 | -45% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $61.81 | -2% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $44.43 | $47.39 | $51.02 | $55.54 | $61.37 |
| 8.0% | $37.13 | $39.05 | $41.32 | $44.05 | $47.38 |
| 9.0% | $31.78 | $33.09 | $34.61 | $36.38 | $38.47 |
| 10.0% | $27.70 | $28.63 | $29.69 | $30.90 | $32.30 |
| 11.0% | $24.48 | $25.16 | $25.93 | $26.79 | $27.76 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions