What is Turning Point Brands, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $35.53 per share. The share price was $62.07 on September 25, 2026, 75% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $21.56 | -65% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $35.53 | -43% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $62.74 | +1% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $45.35 | $48.32 | $51.94 | $56.47 | $62.29 |
| 8.0% | $38.05 | $39.97 | $42.24 | $44.97 | $48.30 |
| 9.0% | $32.70 | $34.02 | $35.53 | $37.30 | $39.39 |
| 10.0% | $28.62 | $29.55 | $30.61 | $31.82 | $33.22 |
| 11.0% | $25.40 | $26.08 | $26.85 | $27.71 | $28.69 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions