What is Toast, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Toast, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $34.77 per share. The share price was $30.60 on September 25, 2026, 12% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $21.78 | -29% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $34.77 | +14% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $58.95 | +93% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $44.60 | $47.66 | $51.41 | $56.09 | $62.12 |
| 8.0% | $37.21 | $39.20 | $41.55 | $44.37 | $47.81 |
| 9.0% | $31.84 | $33.20 | $34.77 | $36.60 | $38.76 |
| 10.0% | $27.76 | $28.73 | $29.83 | $31.08 | $32.52 |
| 11.0% | $24.58 | $25.28 | $26.08 | $26.97 | $27.98 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Toast, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (65.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions