What is TOP Financial Group Ltd worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on TOP Financial Group Ltd's reported free cash flow gives $3.84 per share. The share price was $14.69 on November 10, 2026, 282% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $2.53 | -83% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $3.84 | -74% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $6.30 | -57% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $4.72 | $4.98 | $5.29 | $5.68 | $6.19 |
| 8.0% | $4.07 | $4.24 | $4.44 | $4.67 | $4.96 |
| 9.0% | $3.60 | $3.71 | $3.84 | $4.00 | $4.18 |
| 10.0% | $3.23 | $3.31 | $3.40 | $3.51 | $3.63 |
| 11.0% | $2.94 | $3.00 | $3.07 | $3.14 | $3.23 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at TOP Financial Group Ltd's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (-27.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions