What is Toll Brothers, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Toll Brothers, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $250.42 per share. The share price was $137.34 on September 25, 2026, 45% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $157.54 | +15% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $250.42 | +82% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $423.71 | +209% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $318.50 | $339.45 | $365.04 | $397.04 | $438.18 |
| 8.0% | $267.57 | $281.16 | $297.21 | $316.47 | $340.01 |
| 9.0% | $230.42 | $239.70 | $250.42 | $262.92 | $277.69 |
| 10.0% | $202.16 | $208.76 | $216.25 | $224.80 | $234.67 |
| 11.0% | $179.98 | $184.82 | $190.23 | $196.32 | $203.21 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Toll Brothers, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions