What is TransMedics Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on TransMedics Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $120.49 per share. The share price was $85.29 on September 25, 2026, 29% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $77.77 | -9% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $120.49 | +41% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $200.04 | +135% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $152.84 | $162.92 | $175.25 | $190.66 | $210.47 |
| 8.0% | $128.54 | $135.08 | $142.81 | $152.08 | $163.42 |
| 9.0% | $110.86 | $115.33 | $120.49 | $126.51 | $133.62 |
| 10.0% | $97.45 | $100.63 | $104.24 | $108.36 | $113.11 |
| 11.0% | $86.97 | $89.30 | $91.90 | $94.83 | $98.16 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at TransMedics Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (84.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions