What is TransMedics Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on TransMedics Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $120.13 per share. The share price was $90.95 on November 10, 2026, 24% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $77.41 | -15% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $120.13 | +32% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $199.68 | +120% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $152.48 | $162.56 | $174.89 | $190.30 | $210.11 |
| 8.0% | $128.18 | $134.72 | $142.45 | $151.72 | $163.06 |
| 9.0% | $110.50 | $114.97 | $120.13 | $126.15 | $133.27 |
| 10.0% | $97.10 | $100.28 | $103.88 | $108.00 | $112.75 |
| 11.0% | $86.61 | $88.94 | $91.54 | $94.48 | $97.80 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at TransMedics Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (84.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions