What is Talen Energy Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Talen Energy Corp's reported free cash flow gives -$66.42 per share. The share price was $304.42 on September 25, 2026, 558% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -9.5% | 10.0% | -$115.80 | -138% |
| Base | -4.5% | 9.0% | -$66.42 | -122% |
| Bull | 0.5% | 8.0% | $31.64 | -90% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$32.75 | -$22.85 | -$10.74 | $4.40 | $23.87 |
| 8.0% | -$57.60 | -$51.17 | -$43.58 | -$34.46 | -$23.33 |
| 9.0% | -$75.89 | -$71.49 | -$66.42 | -$60.51 | -$53.52 |
| 10.0% | -$89.93 | -$86.81 | -$83.27 | -$79.22 | -$74.55 |
| 11.0% | -$101.07 | -$98.78 | -$96.22 | -$93.34 | -$90.08 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Talen Energy Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 12 fiscal years (-4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions