What is Talen Energy Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Talen Energy Corp's reported free cash flow gives -$64.08 per share. The share price was $360.68 on November 10, 2026, 663% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -9.5% | 10.0% | -$113.45 | -131% |
| Base | -4.5% | 9.0% | -$64.08 | -118% |
| Bull | 0.5% | 8.0% | $33.98 | -91% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$30.41 | -$20.50 | -$8.39 | $6.74 | $26.21 |
| 8.0% | -$55.25 | -$48.83 | -$41.23 | -$32.12 | -$20.98 |
| 9.0% | -$73.54 | -$69.15 | -$64.08 | -$58.17 | -$51.18 |
| 10.0% | -$87.59 | -$84.47 | -$80.92 | -$76.88 | -$72.21 |
| 11.0% | -$98.73 | -$96.44 | -$93.88 | -$91.00 | -$87.73 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Talen Energy Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 12 fiscal years (-4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions