What is Timken Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Timken Co's reported free cash flow gives $85.36 per share. The share price was $117.45 on September 25, 2026, 38% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $44.67 | -62% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $85.36 | -27% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $166.49 | +42% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $115.23 | $124.32 | $135.43 | $149.33 | $167.19 |
| 8.0% | $92.96 | $98.86 | $105.83 | $114.19 | $124.41 |
| 9.0% | $76.68 | $80.71 | $85.36 | $90.79 | $97.20 |
| 10.0% | $64.27 | $67.13 | $70.38 | $74.10 | $78.38 |
| 11.0% | $54.50 | $56.60 | $58.95 | $61.60 | $64.59 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Timken Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions