What is Timken Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Timken Co's reported free cash flow gives $87.31 per share. The share price was $108.07 on November 10, 2026, 24% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $46.62 | -57% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $87.31 | -19% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $168.44 | +56% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $117.18 | $126.27 | $137.39 | $151.28 | $169.14 |
| 8.0% | $94.91 | $100.81 | $107.78 | $116.14 | $126.36 |
| 9.0% | $78.63 | $82.66 | $87.31 | $92.74 | $99.16 |
| 10.0% | $66.22 | $69.09 | $72.34 | $76.05 | $80.33 |
| 11.0% | $56.45 | $58.56 | $60.90 | $63.55 | $66.54 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Timken Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions