What is Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $632.46 per share. The share price was $248.46 on November 10, 2026, 61% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $392.37 | +58% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $632.46 | +155% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $1,111.16 | +347% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $809.80 | $863.94 | $930.12 | $1,012.84 | $1,119.20 |
| 8.0% | $677.46 | $712.57 | $754.06 | $803.86 | $864.72 |
| 9.0% | $580.75 | $604.76 | $632.46 | $664.77 | $702.97 |
| 10.0% | $507.08 | $524.15 | $543.50 | $565.61 | $591.12 |
| 11.0% | $449.14 | $461.66 | $475.65 | $491.39 | $509.22 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions