What is Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $625.88 per share. The share price was $217.44 on September 25, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $385.79 | +77% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $625.88 | +188% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $1,104.58 | +408% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $803.22 | $857.37 | $923.55 | $1,006.27 | $1,112.62 |
| 8.0% | $670.88 | $705.99 | $747.49 | $797.29 | $858.15 |
| 9.0% | $574.17 | $598.18 | $625.88 | $658.20 | $696.39 |
| 10.0% | $500.50 | $517.57 | $536.92 | $559.03 | $584.55 |
| 11.0% | $442.57 | $455.09 | $469.07 | $484.81 | $502.65 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions