What is Atlassian Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Atlassian Corp's reported free cash flow gives $168.02 per share. The share price was $148.60 on November 10, 2026, 12% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $102.28 | -31% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $168.02 | +13% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $290.41 | +95% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $217.78 | $233.30 | $252.27 | $275.98 | $306.46 |
| 8.0% | $180.40 | $190.46 | $202.35 | $216.63 | $234.07 |
| 9.0% | $153.20 | $160.08 | $168.02 | $177.28 | $188.23 |
| 10.0% | $132.57 | $137.46 | $143.01 | $149.35 | $156.66 |
| 11.0% | $116.43 | $120.02 | $124.03 | $128.54 | $133.65 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Atlassian Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (25.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions