What is Atlassian Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Atlassian Corp's reported free cash flow gives $168.48 per share. The share price was $187.74 on September 25, 2026, 11% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $102.74 | -45% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $168.48 | -10% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $290.87 | +55% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $218.24 | $233.76 | $252.73 | $276.44 | $306.92 |
| 8.0% | $180.86 | $190.92 | $202.81 | $217.09 | $234.53 |
| 9.0% | $153.66 | $160.54 | $168.48 | $177.74 | $188.68 |
| 10.0% | $133.03 | $137.92 | $143.47 | $149.81 | $157.12 |
| 11.0% | $116.89 | $120.48 | $124.49 | $129.00 | $134.11 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Atlassian Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (25.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions