What is TransDigm Group INC worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on TransDigm Group INC's reported free cash flow gives $319.58 per share. The share price was $1,116.20 on September 25, 2026, 249% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $2.47 | -100% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $319.58 | -71% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $951.55 | -15% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $560.84 | $635.42 | $726.59 | $840.54 | $987.05 |
| 8.0% | $380.09 | $428.46 | $485.62 | $554.22 | $638.06 |
| 9.0% | $248.35 | $281.42 | $319.58 | $364.10 | $416.71 |
| 10.0% | $148.27 | $171.79 | $198.44 | $228.90 | $264.05 |
| 11.0% | $69.80 | $87.04 | $106.31 | $127.99 | $152.56 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at TransDigm Group INC's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions