What is Trico Bancshares / worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Trico Bancshares /'s reported free cash flow gives $86.69 per share. The share price was $52.28 on November 10, 2026, 40% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | $55.60 | +6% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | $86.69 | +66% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $144.73 | +177% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $109.22 | $116.11 | $124.54 | $135.07 | $148.61 |
| 8.0% | $92.40 | $96.87 | $102.15 | $108.49 | $116.24 |
| 9.0% | $80.11 | $83.17 | $86.69 | $90.81 | $95.67 |
| 10.0% | $70.76 | $72.93 | $75.39 | $78.21 | $81.46 |
| 11.0% | $63.41 | $65.00 | $66.78 | $68.78 | $71.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Trico Bancshares /'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions