What is Sysco Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Sysco Corp's reported free cash flow gives $77.38 per share. The share price was $78.46 on September 25, 2026, 1% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $38.80 | -51% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $77.38 | -1% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $154.27 | +97% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $106.56 | $115.56 | $126.56 | $140.31 | $158.00 |
| 8.0% | $84.71 | $90.55 | $97.45 | $105.73 | $115.84 |
| 9.0% | $68.78 | $72.77 | $77.38 | $82.75 | $89.10 |
| 10.0% | $56.67 | $59.51 | $62.73 | $66.40 | $70.64 |
| 11.0% | $47.17 | $49.25 | $51.58 | $54.19 | $57.16 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Sysco Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions